Yemen Monitor / Reports Unit / Exclusive:
The U.S. military launched extensive and deadly strikes on Houthi targets in eight Yemeni provinces over the weekend. This marks the first military action against the group since President Donald Trump took office and reinstated it on the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
The declared objectives of the attacks are to restore deterrence, weaken the Houthis’ ability to launch attacks in the Red Sea, and send a message to the Iranian regime, which Trump holds responsible for supplying the Houthis with weapons.
In general, the Houthi-run (internationally unrecognized) Ministry of Health reported that the airstrikes killed 53 people and wounded dozens, surpassing the 34 deaths recorded in all previous U.S. and British attacks combined since the beginning of the Red Sea crisis in November, according to ACLED.
Trump, the Strongman
Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics at University College Dublin, says that “the airstrikes are, at least, part of Trump’s conversation with the American public—where he sometimes pretends to be a ‘peacemaker,’ but he enjoys playing the role of the strongman. While economic issues and the chaos caused by Musk may weaken his approval ratings, he can rally support by waging war.”
He added, “At the same time, Trump pulled his usual trick with Iran’s leaders: ‘Give me a chance for a photo-op for The Art of the Deal, or I will rain hell upon you.’”
Lucas stated that a direct strike on Tehran would trigger repercussions across the Middle East. “Although Iran has weakened over the past year, it still has the capability to strike Americans in the region. So, the low-cost option is to fire at Iran’s ally in Yemen.”
He pointed out that some “officials in the Trump administration see this as a way to pressure the Iranians before any potential talks on Tehran’s nuclear program.”
He continued, “Some of Trump’s advisors believe they can use the hammer in Yemen to strike Iran with clubs at the negotiating table—and secure Trump a photo-op with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.”
The Houthis are linked to Iran
Lucas agrees with Farea Al-Muslimi, an analyst at Chatham House, who said that the Houthis are linked to Iran in Trump’s mind. “So, in a way, this is part of the maximum pressure he is exerting on Iran.”
Trump threatened Iran, considering any shot fired by the Houthis in the Red Sea as a shot from Iranian weapons and led by Iranians.
When Trump ordered a drone strike in 2020 to kill General Qassem Soleimani – the head of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps – he ordered, at the same hour, an attack against Abdul Reza Shalahi, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Yemen, according to Al-Muslimi.
He added, “The US policy in this regard is consistent, whether the White House is Republican or Democrat.”
Earlier on Saturday, US President Trump posted on his platform “Truth Social”: “To all the Houthi terrorists, your time is up, and your attacks must stop, starting today. If they don’t, hell will rain down on you like you’ve never seen before!”
He added: “To Iran: stop supporting the Houthi terrorists immediately!”
Revolutionary Guard Commander Major General Hossein Salami told official media: “We warn our enemies that Iran will respond decisively and destructively if they carry out their threats.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that the US government “has no authority or business dictating Iranian foreign policy.” He added in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday morning: “Stop your support for Israeli genocide and terrorism. Stop killing the Yemeni people.”
Washington has already escalated sanctions pressure on Iran, trying to persuade it to sit at the negotiating table over its nuclear program. The central question regional observers are asking is, whether Trump will resort to military means against Tehran, perhaps after pressure from Israel.
The Decapitation Strategy
Despite this, Al-Muslimi points out that the U.S. strikes indicate a growing Western “willingness” to confront the Houthis.
Luca Nivola, a senior analyst on Yemen and the Gulf at ACLED, a research organization monitoring conflicts, stated: “This wave of airstrikes and the designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization represent a shift in U.S. policy and military strategy. As U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz emphasized, the strikes followed a decapitation strategy, targeting Houthi leaders and high-value assets. This is evident in the airstrikes on urban areas—such as the Al-Jiraf neighborhood in northern Sana’a—which have led to increased casualties.”
Nivola added: “The geographic scope of the strikes has also expanded to include areas and provinces that were previously not targeted, such as Marib.”
He continued: “The latest cycle of escalation was reignited on March 11 when the Houthis announced the resumption of attacks on Israel following the halt of aid deliveries to Gaza. In response to the most recent round of U.S. airstrikes, the Houthis launched three attacks in the Red Sea, targeting the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier. This pattern of retaliatory attacks is likely to continue in the near future and escalate further as the ceasefire in Gaza comes to an end.”
The U.S. faces significant challenges in achieving its objectives in Yemen, particularly in eliminating the Houthis’ capabilities. As long as the group is viewed solely as an Iranian proxy without a comprehensive strategy that includes reviving Yemen’s struggling economy, restoring U.S. aid, and supporting the internationally recognized government, Washington’s campaign against the Houthis will face greater difficulties. Instead of weakening Iran, the U.S. approach risks giving Tehran even greater leverage.
