By/Mareb Al-ward
The Houthis are closely monitoring with apprehension the outcome of the military operation launched by Syrian opposition factions against their ally, the Syrian regime, in Aleppo province, under the name “Deterrence of Aggression” on November 27, 2024. This development comes amid significant geopolitical shifts that could potentially impact Iran’s regional influence.
This concern arises from the shock caused by this unexpected attack, at least for many outside Syria, and the subsequent results that seem miraculous in military assessments. In a short time, the opposition managed to seize control of vast swathes of Aleppo, the country’s economic capital, which they had previously failed to capture, and are nearing complete control amidst the near-total collapse of Syrian regime forces and their supporting Shiite militias.
These developments coincide with a challenging period for the so-called “Iranian axis,” which includes Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias, in addition to the Syrian regime. This comes after the severe blow suffered by the Lebanese party, considered Tehran’s strongest arm in the region, in its war with the Israeli entity. The party lost many of its leaders, including its historic leader, and suffered a significant loss of military capabilities, despite their claims of victory.
For the Houthis, their concerns extend beyond the developments in Aleppo and their implications for the cohesion of the regime that was the first to recognize their authority and establish diplomatic relations with them. They are also worried about the potential impacts on their domestic situation, which is too early to assess until the final outcome of the battle is known militarily and politically.
Despite the ongoing truce in Yemen since April 2022, the Houthis fear that their local opponents may exploit the regional situation to escalate militarily, especially with the potential return of Trump to power and the speculations about his unexpected foreign policy stances.
On a political level, the Houthis have not issued any official comments regarding the developments in Aleppo, which is noteworthy compared to their quick reactions to similar situations involving Hezbollah. This silence can be attributed either to the shock of the sudden operation or to their waiting for the final results.
However, some Houthi leaders, such as Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, have expressed their views. In a tweet, he called for an end to the war in Syria, stating that the escalation at this time serves the “enemies of the nation.”
Despite what may appear as a “superficial concern” for peace, this call implicitly indicates that the Houthis support the preservation of the regime and their mutual interests with it, most notably the sectarian alliance. This is evident in linking Aleppo to the developments in Lebanon and Gaza, while ignoring the suffering of the Syrian people caused by the regime’s bombardment.
Similarly, members of the political Houthi bureau, Fadel Abu Talib and Abdul Malik al-Ajri, try to link the events in Syria to the conflict with the Israeli entity, in an attempt that reflects the Houthis’ approach of exploiting the Palestinian cause to justify their political positions and support for the Syrian regime.
An analysis of these initial positions reveals two significant variables: the first is the absence of any encouragement from the Houthis to crush the opposition, which may be attributed to the impact of regional changes on Iranian influence. The second is the formulation of a new narrative linking the opposition to collusion with the Israeli entity, based on the timing of the movement, indicating the failure of the old regime narrative that they also adopted, which places all opponents in the category of “terrorism.”
In contrast, Abdullah bin Amer, deputy director of the “Moral Guidance Department,” blamed Russia, questioning in a tweet on the platform “X” about its “capabilities and why it did not monitor the preparations for months? Did it not survey the training for weeks? And from here you will not ask why those advanced but why these retreated”?
Clearly, the Houthi propaganda apparatus is trying to adopt a media narrative that frames the defeat of their ally within a broader context by questioning the role of the Russian ally at the appropriate time to hold it accountable before its supporters, in order to justify the failure, maintain morale, and redirect their anger or questions towards Moscow instead of the regime or Tehran and its other militias.
At the level of Houthi media, coverage of the events in Aleppo was limited compared to the extensive coverage of Hezbollah, for example. It was limited to only about seven news items that were confined to statements and information conveyed from Syrian regime media or the Hezbollah-supported Al Mayadeen channel, avoiding publishing special reports on the progress of operations.
This media hesitancy is consistent with the political position, and this disparity in coverage can be attributed to three reasons:
- The first is that highlighting Aleppo could have negative psychological repercussions on their supporters, especially at a time when they are suffering from the effects of what their biggest ally, Hezbollah, has been subjected to.
- The second is that intensive media attention would entail taking supportive positions towards the Syrian regime, such as demonstrations, which they cannot do while mobilizing for Gaza and Lebanon, and lacking a convincing argument to justify standing with him(Syrian regime), such as confronting Israel, which tops their media discourse.
- The third is to avoid consolidating the popular view of them as a sectarian group that supports its allies on a sectarian basis. For example, the Houthis often justify their support for Hezbollah by arguing that it resists “Israel,” so it would be difficult for them to justify their solidarity with the Syrian regime in the face of its victims while he has done nothing to liberate the Golan or support Gaza.
The battle of Aleppo imposes additional pressure on the Houthis in the context of the changes that the Iranian axis is undergoing, and accordingly, their position will be further determined, in addition to the potential impact that will depend on its (the battle of Aleppo) final repercussions.
