Houthis Between Regional Ambitions and a Heavy Burden: Can They Succeed in Replacing Hezbollah? (In-Depth Analysis(
Yemen Monitor/ Reporting Unit
By Salman Hamid:
Over the past years of war, the Houthis have acquired new weapons that have enabled them to threaten Gulf Arab states and international shipping routes in the Red Sea. Within the past year, the armed group has taken another step towards presenting itself as a regional power for the first time, after its policies were previously limited to Yemeni affairs, but this could become a heavy burden on them.
The Houthi leader announced targeting 195 commercial ships over the year, with two ships sunk, one hijacked, and at least four sailors killed. They launched attacks with more than 1,000 missiles and drones, according to the group’s official announcements. Since October 7, 2023, the Houthis have been launching attacks, claiming they are in support of Palestine, which is facing a brutal aggression from the Israeli occupation, although experts say their goals lie elsewhere.
In September, a new variable emerged that contributed to the advancement of the Houthis’ ambitions under the leadership of the Iranian axis. The extensive Israeli penetration of Hezbollah’s political and military structure and its top ranks, and the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and his top military commanders, presented a valuable opportunity for the Yemeni group under the leadership of the Iranian axis to inherit Hezbollah’s mantle, but a heavy burden will fall on the Houthis and Yemen.
The British newspaper “The Guardian” reported that dozens of communication devices exploded in Yemen while in the hands of Houthi officials, coinciding with its explosion with thousands of Hezbollah and Syrian elements. The US also launched strikes using B-2 bombers that targeted underground warehouses of the group in five locations in Sana’a and Sa’ada.
The US bombing of the Houthis’ fortified underground warehouses seems to be a serious message from the US to the Houthis, demanding that they completely stop their maritime attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and that deviating from their “local functional role” will expose them to consequences. This confirms what the former commander of the US Central Command, General Kenneth McKenzie, said a few days before the attacks, that the US does not have the will to prevent Houthi attacks because Washington has the ability to stop them.
The messages behind the US airstrikes
according to Salim al-Jalal, a Yemeni affairs researcher, are that the US is signaling to Iran that it will not take any action against its interests in Yemen, as long as Iran does not deviate from what it has agreed upon with Washington.
Al-Jalal adds: “The strikes on fortified underground warehouses prove that the US was aware of all of the Houthi’s movements and networks and turned a blind eye, colluding with Iran to arm the Houthis.”
He points out that the Houthis and Iran’s deviation from the understanding with Washington and their attempt to impose control over Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea, as well as undermine the geopolitical situation in the region, led the US to strike Houthi naval capabilities to restore the situation to a state that serves US interests.
Hishham al-Musouri refers to new statements by the US envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking, on Thursday, in which he said that Washington has not changed its strategy towards the situation in Yemen.
Al-Musouri says that the envoy’s statements regarding the non-collapse of the truce in Yemen, despite the Israeli aggression against Gaza and the recent start of a ground invasion of Lebanon, are a signal from him that gives support to the Houthis, but only at the local Yemeni level.
Attempts to Dismantle the Regional Influence of the Houthis
Al-Musouri adds: The American envoy stated that the Houthis cannot govern and manage services, but they do it by force. This means that he is telling them that we do not mind your military rule by force in Yemen, but on the condition that you do not have regional influence that we do not accept, or beyond what is permitted for you.
Despite the Houthis’ threats to respond to US attacks and earlier Israeli ones that destroyed the ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa and rendered them out of service, there have been no recorded Houthi attacks since October 10th . Since the killing of Nasrallah on September 27th , the Houthis announced around 10 attacks against maritime shipping, but these “were not effective or impactful.” Instead, they are increasingly relying on Iran to face the repercussions of their maritime attacks throughout the year.
Researcher Alexandra Nikopoulou states, “The Houthis have essentially transformed from a party recognized as a local Yemeni actor to a powerful regional actor within the resistance axis led by Iran.”
The researcher pointed out in a report published by Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies that the Houthis succeeded in positioning themselves as prominent players in the Iran-aligned axis and enhanced their coordination with other members of the axis, especially the Iraqi Shiite factions. The Gaza War provided the Houthis with a pretext to showcase their increasing capabilities and take on a larger regional role.
A Shift in Strategy
For decades, the Lebanese Hezbollah and its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah have been at the helm of the resistance axis in the Arab world. His assassination in September and the Israeli occupation’s severe blow to the group’s top-ranking leadership, including “Saleh Sarour,” the commander of the party’s drone system who was in Yemen assisting the Houthis during the past ten years of war, and returned to Beirut after October, marked a significant turning point. The leadership in Hezbollah has been the cornerstone of driving Iranian policies in the region, and it seems that the Iranian map within the axis is undergoing fundamental changes.
Fras Elias, an Iraqi researcher specializing in Iran, says that after the blow suffered by Hezbollah, Tehran completely changed from the principle of “unity of arenas” between its militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen to the principle of “isolating the arenas,” fearing that what happened to Hezbollah would be repeated for the rest of the groups.
Elias indicates that the Iranian shift aims to control the escalation, reject war, and calm the arenas in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Researcher Maysaa Shujauddeen believes that “Iran sees that its investment in the Houthis has been good, as they have proven their ability to be an effective element and play a role in the resistance axis, which has prompted Tehran to entrust them with a greater role.” Shujauddeen did not rule out the possibility of Iran providing more support to the Houthis, as well as the group’s increasing reliance on Iran.
Abdul Ghani al-Eryani, a senior researcher at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, said that the Houthis’ operations in the Red Sea have had a dual impact on their relationship with Iran and their status as regional players.
He added that “their attacks in the Red Sea have made them new enemies, and therefore the only way to enjoy protection is through a full alliance with Iran and the axis loyal to it,” noting that the Houthis “not only make decisions regarding the Yemeni interior but also participate in discussions about the coordinated work of the axis, and their activity in Iraq has become more evident.”
Changing of the International Position
The position of the Houthis impacts the peace process in Yemen as al-Eryani from Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies believes that the Houthis have become an international dilemma for the US, stating: “The Americans will not allow the peace process to continue. They will not enable the Saudis to hand over power in Yemen to the Houthis.” Therefore, even if Riyadh aligns itself with the demands of the Houthis, the group is now viewed as a threat to international security, which has weakened its position in negotiations, at least relatively.
Al-Eryani added: “The Saudis realize that despite the deal they proposed to the Houthis, the group has forged a stronger alliance with Iran.”
The Houthis will continue to capitalize on the momentum they gained since the onset of the brutal Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, regardless of the war’s outcomes, which have strengthened their regional role within the Iranian axis. However, this creates significant challenges for the group in Yemen’s internal politics, as the international community will oppose the Saudis’ lenient position towards the group amidst rising anger in the areas under their control, compounded by widespread repression that threatens their survival.
