Analysis

What is the possibility of Israeli retaliate airstrikes on Sana’a?

 

Yemen Monitor / Sana’a / Exclusive:

The Israeli occupation threatened on Tuesday that its forces are capable of targeting the entire Middle East, following Iran’s attack on the occupied territories with a wave of 180 rockets, and after a missile attack claimed by the Houthis.

The military spokesperson for the Yemeni Houthi group stated that they targeted military sites deep within Israel with three Quds-5 cruise missiles.

Last Sunday, the Israeli occupation attacked the coastal city of Al Hudaydah for the second time – following an attack in July – targeting key infrastructure, including the Al Hudaydah port, Ras Issa port, and power plant. The city, controlled by the Houthi group, witnessed more than 15 Israeli airstrikes, resulting in the deaths and injuries of nearly 50 people.

Expanding Attacks

It was clear that the attacks launched by the Israeli occupation last Sunday expanded to include the Ras Issa port and the main power plant in the city of Al Hudaydah, taking them offline. In the attacks of July, Israel targeted oil tankers at the Al Hudaydah port. However, these attacks will not impact the war economy run by the Houthis, but they do increase the suffering of local Yemeni residents in Houthi-controlled areas.

The Israeli occupation deliberately disseminates images of the massive fires resulting from its airstrikes, in a calculated and intentional act, to send a message to the Houthis: “They should envision the possibility of similar scenes recurring in other areas deep within the geographical scope controlled by the Houthis in northwestern Yemen; in fact, this could become broader and more devastating, damaging the capabilities of the Houthis themselves,” as stated by Anwar Al-Ansi, the BBC’s Yemeni file official.

Al-Ansi adds: “In light of Israeli statements, it is likely that Israel will ensure a direct and immediate response to any Houthi attack on Israel in the foreseeable future, with the possibility that the door for accountability with them will remain open for future plans and stages.”

On Wednesday, the Houthis attacked what they claimed were “military sites deep within Israel.” It seems that Israel is preparing for a significant response to Iran and the Houthis, engaging in discussions with the US.

The Houthis Pressured Iran

Military analyst at the “Israel Hayom” newspaper, Yoav Lemor, states that the Iranian attack on Israel was due to pressure from Tehran’s allies, most notably the armed Houthi group.

He added that Israel’s attack against the Houthis at the beginning of this week was “larger than reported” and targeted Al Hudaydah port, through which oil and its derivatives are imported. “It is expected to create a crisis for the Houthis, prompting them to turn to Iran for urgent assistance. Iran, under pressure since the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, has been cornered once again, which is why they carried out the attack.”

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi threatened to retaliate against those who launch attacks against them. In the attacks on Sunday, Netanyahu stated that the strikes on the Houthis send a message to the Iranians.

No Rules of Engagement

Given that the attacks by the Israeli occupation and the Houthis do not adhere to specific rules of engagement, there are no real, reliable indicators suggesting that Israel will not retaliate deep within Yemen, targeting the capital Sana’a to avenge the Houthis.

In the recent strike, the Israeli occupation expanded its attacks on Hodeidah, targeting civilian infrastructure, including the out-of-service airport. The occupation is committing horrendous war crimes in the Gaza Strip, where more than 150,000 Palestinian civilians, most of them women and children, have been killed or injured since the invasion began in October. There has also been a brutal ground invasion in southern Lebanon. Nothing prevents Israel from committing atrocities through reckless bombing of Sana’a.

As in Hodeidah, the Houthis may appear more pleased with an Israeli strike on Sana’a, as it increases mobilization among their ranks, strengthens their position in the resistance axis, and provides them with a tool to oppress their opponents.

Israeli strikes on Yemen’s infrastructure indicate a lack of confidence in the US-British attacks on Houthi areas since January, in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. These strikes previously targeted Houthi sites in Sana’a.

While the world awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s attack, with high risks for  Biden’s administration amid fears of a regional escalation just 34 days before the elections, Israel could bomb another Arab capital alongside “Beirut, Damascus, and Baghdad.”

 

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