Yemen Monitor/Newsroom
The Israeli Institute for National Security Research has said that the airstrikes carried out by the Israeli army on the western Yemeni coastal city of Hodeidah are a message from Tel Aviv to the Arab states and the US-led coalition in the Red Sea before Iran.
The institute, affiliated with Tel Aviv University, questioned whether the Yafa drone was a game-changer, and whether it was an attempt to strengthen the Houthi forces in the resistance camp, considering that the response to it by bombing Hodeidah was a message to Washington before Iran.
The Israeli institute considered that the bombing of Hodeidah, contrary to what is claimed by Israeli observers and commentators, does not mean cutting off the smuggling axis from Iran to the Houthis.
It believes that smuggling will continue, just as the airstrike will not deter the Houthis from continuing to target Israel, but on the contrary, it could inflame it.
On the goals of Hodeidah bombing, the institute adds: “Israeli officials claim that the raid carries a message to the region, especially to Iran and its allies, that Israel will not contain a strike that targets its citizens, and it knows how to strike far from its borders.”
However, the Israeli institute believes that Iran is aware of the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force, noting that the raid on Hodeidah was not intended to provide an example of these capabilities.
He continued: “Israel’s message is directed to the moderate Arab states, and to the West, specifically the US, which has been leading, for nine months, an international coalition in the Red Sea in an attempt to confront Houthi attacks without escalating a regional conflict.”
The Message to the International Coalition
According to the Institute, Israel’s message to the international coalition is that “containment” has failed, and it is necessary to strike the Houthis with greater force.
It adds: “Hodeidah Port is the economic lifeline for the Houthis, and its blockade weighs heavily on them, especially since they are already facing US sanctions.”
Egypt and Western Countries
The Israeli Institute believes that “Israel will find it difficult to enlist Arab countries, even Egypt, openly against the Houthis, despite its harm from their control of the Red Sea, because it fears their retaliation and Iranian reaction”.
The institute recommends a measured and calm response from Arab countries, in all circumstances, Israel should coordinate its attacks to the extent possible with the US alliance and regional countries, especially those that would be affected by counter-attacks from the Houthis, in addition to being prepared for an escalation that appears imminent.
Tel Aviv Drone
In a recent publication, the Institute wonders whether the drone on Tel Aviv is a decisive blow to the balance of power. The Institute believes that Yafa drone is a new stage in the war of attrition of the resistance against “Israel” indicating that the drones have inherent advantages that make them difficult to detect early on: they leave no clear tracks due to the materials used to manufacture them, and their relatively small size, maneuverability, and ability to fly at low altitudes.
The Institute also notes that early detection is a technological challenge with many opportunities for false alarms and penetration of layers of defensive systems.
In a third publication, the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University believes that Yafa drone that killed an Israeli citizen as part of the Houthis’ expansion of their attacks against Israel, in collaboration with Shia militias in Iraq, in an effort to drive them to stop the war on Gaza.
According to the Israeli Institute, this is happening despite the US military efforts in the region over the past few months, as part of Washington’s attempts to limit the Houthis’ capabilities.
The Institute warns that the accumulation of the Houthis’ experiences from their war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen, as well as their ability to manufacture weapons with Iranian support, explains their continued success in launching attacks against Israel and Western targets.
The Institute warns that deteriorating relations in this front may have indirect effects on the stability of Gulf countries and the region, and it may also threaten future normalization with Saudi Arabia, and also threaten Israel’s ability to enlist the region against the Houthis.
It also warns that continued hostilities will lead to a wide regional conflict and threaten the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, especially since the Houthis have expanded and achieved cooperation against Israel with Iraqi entities. The Institute does not rule out the possibility that the Houthis will carry out threats to target Saudi Arabia for its cooperation with Israel against Hamas.
It adds: “Such developments and threats will deter Saudi Arabia from continuing its normalization with Israel and pursuing a strategic agreement with the US before settling accounts with the Houthis.”
The Israeli Institute concludes by saying that without stopping the war on Gaza, and regardless of Israel’s response to the Yafa drone, the Houthis will continue their attacks against Israel, thus strengthening their position in the axis of resistance and highlighting the need for international solutions to Yemen’s problems.
It also concludes that there are no easy military solutions to deal with the Houthis in Yemen, but rather that Israel and Saudi Arabia may find themselves on the same side, which may drive them towards rapprochement.
