Yemen Monitor/Reports Unit/Special Translation:
On Sunday, Al-Qaeda branch in Yemen announced the death of its leader Khalid Batarfi and the appointment of a new figure to lead the terrorist organization in Yemen and most of the world. This raises questions about the organization’s priorities, as indicated in a report in the New York Times.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula released a video announcing Batarfi’s death, showing images of him wrapped in a white shroud covered with the black Al-Qaeda flag. The cause of his death was not specified.
Gregory D. Johnsen, a Yemen expert at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said: “It will be interesting to see if the group charts a new course in the coming months.”
He added: “A.Q.A.P. has struggled in recent years, losing territory and recruits and, at the moment, is a shadow of its former self.”
In the video statement, Ibrahim al-Qawsi, a senior Sudanese leader in the group, expressed his “heartfelt condolences and sincere sorrow” for Batarfi’s death.
He said that the new leader of the group will be “Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki” from Yemen. The United States had previously offered a reward of $6 million for information leading to al-Awlaki’s capture, and $5 million for information leading to Batarfi’s capture.
Mr. Batarfi was born in Saudi Arabia and traveled to Afghanistan in the 1990s to fight alongside the Taliban before joining the Al-Qaeda branch in Yemen, according to a US intelligence report about him. He is believed to have been in his 40s when he died.
A UN report in January estimated that the group has about 3,000 fighters spread across various Yemeni provinces, and that it has faced operational and financial challenges, but “still poses a threat.”
The report’s authors wrote: “Despite its setbacks, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula remains the most active terrorist group in Yemen with the intent to carry out operations in the region and beyond.”
The war in Yemen has torn the country apart over the past decade, with the Iranian-backed Houthi group controlling much of the country and fighting the internationally recognized government that controls most of the southern provinces. Hundreds of thousands of people have died from violence, hunger and disease.
Colin Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at Soufan Group, a New York-based security consulting firm, said the appointment of a new leader for the group “doesn’t change much in terms of intent.”
He said: “Like all his predecessors, al-Awlaki has been a vocal advocate for carrying out attacks against the United States.”
He added: “But the question is about the organization’s ability to carry out these attacks.”
Clarke continued: The instability in Yemen – where the Houthis are attacking ships in the Red Sea and the US-led coalition is carrying out airstrikes against the group – could “provide an opportunity” for Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula “to recruit and rebuild its operations.”
“That will be the overarching priority for al-Awlaki, to restore A.Q.A.P. to relevance within the broader jihadist movement,” he said
