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Will the US Launch a Ground Operation in Western Yemen After the Shipwreck? Experts Analyze

Yemen Monitor/Reporting Unit/Special

On Saturday, the internationally recognized Yemeni government announced the sinking of a ship attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea. This is the first ship to be completely destroyed as part of the group’s campaign that began months ago, causing new turmoil in the chaos of the waterway.

The sinking of the ship “Rubymar” comes at a time when shipping through the vital waterway for cargo and energy shipments moving from Asia and the Middle East to Europe has been affected by Houthi attacks.

The Iran-backed Houthi group has held the United States and the United Kingdom responsible for the sinking of the ship and the environmental damage from its sinking on Yemen and the countries of the region.

Since November, the Houthis have been carrying out military operations in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait against ships that the group says are Israeli or heading to Israel due to the war in Gaza Strip, but the Yemeni government and researchers say the group’s goal is internal to escape the problems in their areas of control and try to regain the popularity of the group that they lost due to the war.

In response to the Houthi attacks, the United States and Britain have been carrying out a military operation since January 11 that includes airstrikes and missile strikes against Houthi targets in their areas of control in Yemen, which has prompted the latter to expand the scope of targeting to include American and British commercial and military ships.

More..UK-owned ship attacked by Houthis sinks off Yemen coast

A land operation!

A maritime security expert saw that the sinking of the ship would fuel the conflict in the Red Sea region, and it could even lead to a “limited  Western land military operation” against the Houthis in Yemen.

Mohammed Salam Al-Asbahi, a Yemeni maritime security expert, told the Chinese news agency (Xinhua) that the sinking of the ship “Rubymar” days after it was directly targeted by the Houthis would greatly complicate the scene, as this is the first ship to be sunk.

He added that “what happened is a dangerous development, and the military operation led by US and UK against the Houthis since January will escalate in the coming period, which will fuel the conflict in the Red Sea region”.

He continued, “We may see an expansion of a US-British operations into a limited land operation in the Red Sea coastal province of Hodeidah”.

Al-Hodeidah province has been under Houthi control since October 2014.

Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder said that  the United States will continue to protect international trade, noting that if the coalition does not take action, lives will be at risk and assets will be at risk.

Ryder asked, “What is the cost of sunken ships, lost lives and environmental disasters if we don’t work with the international community to address this problem”?

Ryder said that for the Houthis, in the long run, “it is not in their interest to continue doing this”.

He added, “It looks like the Houthis are trying to destroy their neighborhood”.

Days ago, the British Ministry of Defense requested an additional £3.2 billion to its budget for this year, as operating costs exceeded the budget after military operations in Yemen and the Red Sea – in addition to Britain’s continued support for Ukraine.

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Growing up of Houthi power

The Houthis have not only escalated their attacks over time, but they are also introducing new combat capabilities. Last month, they launched an unmanned suicide vehicle remotely controlled underwater for the first time on the battlefield in the Red Sea.

Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi said last week: “We have surprises that the enemy will not expect, surpassing what the enemies and their friends expect”.

Mohammed al-Basha, an expert and analyst on Yemen and Middle East affairs at the Navanti Group consultancy in the United States, said the Houthis have Soviet-made bunkers to hide equipment, and that “a land operation may be the only way to ensure deterrence, although this option is not likely on the table in Washington or anywhere else in the region”.

He added, “Because this is linked to Palestine, people are not” enthusiastic about starting a land operation, “people are ashamed of it”.

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High costs

The high cost of the US operation against Houthi attacks puzzles strategists at the Pentagon. In most cases, the United States fires 2 million$ defensive missiles to stop 2,000$ Houthi drones, a contradiction that the Houthis have noted in their statements mocking Washington.

Wes Rambu, a researcher with the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that any military involvement would cost money, but he added that “you can’t put a dollar value on saving lives”.

He added: “The US Department of Defense is not trying to win an accounting exercise”.

Rambu also said he would bet on the United States against the Houthis in a long-term economic battle.

He said: “I don’t think the upstarts (Houthis) are going to be able to bankrupt the United States”.

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