Yemen Monitor / Newsroom:
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) warned that millions of Yemenis will suffer from a deficit in food consumption until at least the middle of this year, as the macroeconomic shocks resulting from the ongoing conflict in the country continue to severely restrict families’ access to food.
In its latest report, the network concerned with monitoring the food security situation in the world and warning of famine indicated that the ports under Houthi control have lost 70 percent of their operational capacity as a result of the Israeli strikes.
It stated that in the areas controlled by the internationally recognized Yemeni government, above-average food prices and insufficient income – including irregular government salary payments – are putting pressure on the purchasing power of families, leading to widespread crisis outcomes in Phase 3 of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
In a number of areas controlled by the internationally recognized Yemeni government, humanitarian food assistance is likely – according to the network – to prevent more severe acute food insecurity, leading to crisis outcomes.
The network also indicated that a group of governorates under Houthi control continues to face emergency outcomes, which is Phase 4 of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), one step away from famine.
It stated in its report that although price controls remain in place with these areas receiving additional humanitarian food assistance earlier this year, the expected coverage is not high enough to prevent these phase outcomes due to the scarcity of other food and income sources for families.
According to the report, the recent Israeli airstrikes on essential port infrastructure have increased the risk of fuel and food shortages, and the return of the fuel black market, especially if operational capacity remains severely limited in the medium to long term, and if mitigation strategies are not used.
The network confirmed that those raids led to the destruction of fuel tanks; the damage of 8 marine boats necessary for shipping operations in the ports of Hodeidah and Salif and oil installations in Ras Issa; and damage to two power stations in the city of Sana’a.
Escalation Fears
The network revealed that on December 26, a second round of Israeli airstrikes damaged Sana’a International Airport, power stations in Haziz (south of the city), Ras Katheeb, Hodeidah port, Ras Issa oil port, and Salif Marine Port.
It said that this escalation, along with the recent attacks by Houthi forces on positions of legitimate government forces along the main front lines in the governorates of Taiz, Al Dhale’e, and Lahj, has undermined the mediation efforts made by the United Nations to reach a political solution to the conflict, which increases concerns about further escalation and the possibility of increased internal displacement.
The network reported that there are stocks of grain and fuel sufficient for at least two months in the ports under Houthi control, and expected that they would meet demand in the near term. However, it returned and said that local news reports showed that the attacks reduced the operational capacity in the affected ports to receive new supplies by 70 percent, and the process of assessing the full extent of the damage – including the longer-term effects on supply and prices – is still ongoing.
The report warned that given the Houthis’ strong preference to maintain price stability, they are likely to use mitigation measures to ensure the continued supply of essential goods. These strategies may include purchasing and using additional tugboats, modifying unloading systems for ships at sea, and redirecting official and unofficial imports through ports and areas under the control of the legitimate government in Yemen.
However, the network says that if these mitigation strategies are not implemented or if additional strikes occur that limit the restoration of operational capacity, there is a possibility that supply shortages will lead to sharp price increases similar to those that occurred between 2015 and 2022.
Distribution of Aid
According to the data of the international network, the World Food Program began distributing the last round of food aid for 2024 to the areas under the control of the legitimate government in early last December. Within the framework of the prioritization phase in the re-targeting and registration process, the number of targeted beneficiaries was reduced from 3.6 million to 2.8 million people.
The report points out that 800,000 people lose direct access to food aid, representing only 8 percent of the population of more than 10.2 million people in 8 governorates, and parts of Hodeidah, Taiz, Marib and Al-Jawf, which constitute the areas of control of the legitimate government.
According to the UN report, given the deteriorating macroeconomic situation, some former beneficiaries who are no longer receiving aid are likely to start facing greater gaps in food consumption; leading some families to fall into a state of emergency in the fourth phase of the classification. However, the Famine Early Warning Network does not expect a change in outcomes at the regional level.
In the Houthi-run areas, the World Food Program completed the first round of the targeted emergency food assistance program last November by providing assistance to 1.4 million people in 34 districts.
The World Food Program expected to increase aid in the next round to reach 2.8 million people, and also expected to start at least one additional round of targeted emergency food aid distributions in early 2025, but details regarding the timing and number of beneficiaries are not yet publicly available.
The report mentioned that this year’s frost season was unusually cold in Yemen, and expected that the effects on farmers’ income and the associated economic losses would be worse than usual in many highland governorates.
It expected that farmers’ off-season crops, such as vegetables, “Qat” and citrus fruits, would be negatively affected, stressing that farmers have very limited options to adapt after years of conflict and macroeconomic instability.
The UN report stated that farms in the governorates of Al-Bayda and Ibb have already witnessed losses in vegetable crops, and prices are expected to rise in the coming weeks.
